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经济衰退对英国酒店业的影响

作者:2017-01-09 19:14阅读:文章来源:论文代写
经济衰退对英国酒店业的影响
Economic Downturn Effects On The Uk Hotel Industry 
 
从2007年底开始,许多人预测英国的酒店业,以及世界范围内的酒店业,已经遭受了严重的经济衰退的影响。在过去的几个月,英国的经济发展过程经历了从繁荣到危机,到2009年初,市场中的态度和信念已经彻底改变了消费者和企业从以前的乐观。
信贷危机开始于2007年八月,欧洲中央银行和美国联邦储备委员会将450亿美元进入金融市场之,欧洲,美国和英国均享受房价上升和消费者信心的经济繁荣。国内生产总值(GDP)增长到2007年的3815亿6500万£,同年家庭人均可支配收入为14321£。在这些“繁荣”时期,贷款是高的,由于宽松的贷款限制银行借款人可以筹集大量的资金。财产担保的债务被出售给投资者。因此,房地产价格大幅膨胀,创造了一个“泡沫”,当借款人开始拖欠他们的贷款,投资的价值大幅下跌。由银行导致雷曼兄弟在美国和英国北部的崩溃导致巨大的损失意味着贷款变得更加困难,银行对他们借钱更严格。。由此产生的资金短缺,由于缺乏对贷款和贷款的担忧导致了经济的低迷,房价下跌和失业增加。进一步的后果包括公共支出的大幅增加,预计将花费数年的时间来偿还,预计失业人数上升到320万,工资冻结或削减和大量的失业。可用信用的崩溃开始于美国,但全球贸易的影响很快就感觉到世界各地的很快面临的问题。德国、法国和意大利是欧元区的三大经济体,到2008年末,在经济衰退中,其他国家也迅速效仿。西班牙和爱尔兰都目睹了一个房地产泡沫破灭和收缩。
 
The UK hotel industry, as well as the hotel industry world wide, has been hit hard by the recession which started at the end of 2007 and is predicted by many to last until at least 2010. In the course of a few months the UK's economy has gone from boom to crisis and by early 2009 the attitudes and beliefs of consumers and businesses in the marketplace had altered radically from previous optimism (Mintel Reforecasts 2009 [online]).
 
Prior to the 'credit crunch' which commenced in August 2007 when the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve put £45bn into the financial markets (Elliott 2008 [online]), Europe, the USA and the UK were enjoying an economic boom with rising house prices and high consumer confidence (Budworth 2008 [online]). Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose to £381,565 Million in 2007, and household disposable income per capita to £14,321 in the same year (Key Note 2008, p. 18). During these 'boom' years, lending was high and borrowers able to raise large sums of money due to relaxed lending restrictions by banks. Individuals whose circumstances would have at one time barred them from borrowing were allowed to access many times their salary (Budworth 2008 [online]). Debts secured upon property were sold on to investors. Property prices thus became vastly inflated creating a 'bubble' which burst when borrowers started to default on their loans and the value of the investments therefore fell heavily. The huge losses by the banks leading to the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the US and the near collapse of Northern Rock in the UK meant that lending became much more difficult and banks stricter about who they lend money to. (Budworth 2008 [online]). The resulting shortage of funds due to fears about lending and lack of loans has led to a downturn in the economy, falling house prices and increasing unemployment with many firms going out of business altogether and many more making drastic savings (Budworth 2008 [online]). Further consequences include a vast increase in public spending which is predicted to take years to pay off, a predicted rise in unemployment (by the British Chamber of Commerce) to 3.2 million, wage freezes or cuts and massive job losses (The Economy News 2009 [online]). The collapse in available credit started in the USA but in these days of global trading the implications were soon felt around the world with the UK quickly facing problems. Germany, France and Italy - the three largest economies in the Eurozone - were officially in recession by late 2008, and others rapidly followed suit. Both Spain and Ireland have witnessed a housing bubble burst and contraction in wider economic activity (Foresight 2008, p. 7).
 
The Pound Against the Euro and Dollar 英镑兑欧元和美元
One factor that complicates the situation somewhat is the pound's weak status against the Euro and Dollar. Sterling has lost value rapidly over the last year or so. In July 2008, one pound would still buy $2, but by November 2008 it was worth only $1.48, the lowest point for 6 years. Similarly at one point £1 was almost equal in value to 1 Euro. While this is bad news for people buying goods or traveling outside the UK, it also means that UK goods and services become more attractively priced from the point of view of Eurozone or USA travellers (O'Grady 2008 [Online]). Specifically, hotels in the UK will appear relatively cheaper since this fall in the value of sterling, and hence more attractive to inbound travellers and tourists. At the same time, it means it is less attractive for the UK holidaymaker to travel to the Eurzone or USA, and more attractive to stay 'at home'.
 
Hotel Industry Background 酒店行业背景
Introduction - The Growth Years to 2007
Hotel operators in the UK cater both to the corporate sector and consumer sector. Both are significant parts of their operations and both includes not just accommodation but also facilities such as meeting and conference rooms in the case of the corporate sector and add-on services like food and beverages for both sectors. The UK has been historically an important business destination with the growing importance of the London stock market and financial sector (Key Note 2008, p. 11). In the consumer sector most activity is accounted for by holidays and short breaks with a significant minority for wedding or party venues.
 
The UK hotel market grew in 2008 to a value of £11.5 billion, which is an increase of nearly 20% since 2002. This growth took place against the backdrop of a healthy worldwide economy with the global travel market recovering after the 2001 terrorist attacks (BMRC 2009, p.1). Factors influencing this growth were varied and included an increase in the number of tourists coming in to the UK in the years since 2002 and a diversification in the hotel market with increases in the budget sector as well as luxury brands. There was an increased call for upmarket brands as London in particular saw an increase in the ultra wealthy market sector for which money was no object (BMRC 2009, p.1). Other factors driving growth include the growth in internationalisation and global business, rises in disposable income, and the development of tourism from emerging economies such as former East Europe and India. The growth of the internet and online booking also paid a part as well as increased marketing by hoteliers (Key Note 2008 pp. 19-21).
 
During 2008 this boom came to an end. The hotel industry was hit relatively late by the depression, and even during 2008 industry experts were proclaiming that the previous 12 months had been a time of overall growth (Cater & Hotelkeeper 2009, p. 6). Occupancy rates were static in the first part of 2008, but then hotel transactions started to decline and during September 2008 occupancy fell steeply as did revenue per room (Cater & Hotelkeeper 2009, p. 6). Further, developments for new hotels and improvements were cancelled and budgets reduced.
 
Strengths and Weaknesses of the UK Hotel Market 英国酒店市场的优势和劣势
A Key Note report identifies aspects of the UK hotel market influencing the vulnerablity or resilience to recession. On a positive note, the UK hotel market is a strong and sophisticated one with a wide range of different options to appeal to a range of different types of customer and including internationally recognised brands as well as smaller individual operators. Developments in technology and the increase of internet use over the last 10 years mean selecting and booking a trip is easier than ever before. The fact that most UK residents do not use hotels further offers an opportunity for growth, as does the potential for further increase in internet use. Restaurants attached to hotels and other such 'add on' services provide further expansion potential. Finally, the UK is experiencing a growth in its older population, who have more time to travel.
 
On the negative side, the hotel market is particularly vulnerable to an economic downturn as travel and trips are often seen as an area in which spending can be cut back. (Key Note 2008, pp. 48-50). Research also suggests that despite the apparently rosy outlook of the years immediately prior to 2008, the market had other issues to contend with even without recession. The long-stay leisure market (defined as those travellers staying away for five nights or more) has been in decline since 2004: the number of long-stay hotel rooms booked in 2008 was half that in 2006, at 11 million (BMRC 2009, p. 1).
 
The Impact of the Recession on the Hotel Industry in the UK: Specific Factors 英国经济衰退对酒店业的影响:特定因素
Introduction
This section looks at some of the factors which impact upon the Hotel industry, and why they are important. The messages are mixed. Some of the factors are detrimental to the industry while others have more positive impact.
 
Air Travel in Decline
Although long-term growth in demand for air transport is projected, growth rates in the short to medium-term are likely to be affected by the general slowdown in the economy and by the rising cost of air travel. A market-wide study indicates that although long-term growth in demand for travel by air is expected, short to medium term projections are for negative growth in 2009 with the beginnings of recovery in 2010 (Key Note 2009, p. 10). This will have an impact upon the UK hotel market as there will be fewer travellers into the country. However, it should be bourne in mind that fewer UK holiday makers will want to holiday abroad due to financial considerations, thus boosting demand for hotels.
 
Collapse of the Property Market
One of the hardest-hit sectors of the economy in the recession has been building as house prices have crashed and loans to finance building projects have dried up together with the market for the finished product. The UK enjoyed some of the highest periods of growth of house and other building prices, and the construction industry has been particularly badly hit by the latest recession. Developers are unable to access credit to fund large scale building schemes, so many hotel projects have been stalled (Blitz 2009 [online]). Aside from new developments, hotel owners who are unable to access further credit are also finding things more difficult. While larger operators and branded chains are able to look to the medium and long-term, over which a boom for hotel and travel are predicted due to emerging markets, smaller operators have less access to the resources which will see them through the next couple of years (Blitz 2009 [online]).
The domestic travel area offers some possible positives for the industry as a whole. It is arguably the case that tourism and the hotel industry in the UK are better placed to withstand the results of a recession than either other industries or other holiday destinations. The reputation of the UK as a whole is very strong as a destination, as is that of England in particular.A 2008 survey by Visit Britain of 614 respondents based in the UK who regularly take short breaks reported that 9 out of 10 people consider England when choosing a short break. The branding of England has improved over the course of this tracker study, 58% of respondents say it is their favourite holiday destination considered. It is considered easy to get around and seen as having beautiful scenery (Visit Britain 2008, p.2). Short breaks account for almost 2/3 of breaks taken in the UK, so these findings are significant for the industry as a whole. (Bainbridge 2009, p. 1).
 
Another consideration is the rising concern with being 'green' and the impact of frequent air travel on the environment (Bainbridge 2009, p. 1). Consumers who want to reduce their carbon footprint and impact upon the environment are increasingly opting to stay within the UK (Bainbridge 2009, p. 1). What Bainbridge does not highlight, however, is that the new concern for 'green' issues is not completely beneficial. Tourists from overseas will be equally concerned to cut their travel abroad, so this could also reduce inbound tourism into the UK. Research is conflicting with some showing that interest in saving the environment is fairly low priority for the majority of consumers and other studies confirming the idea that 'green' issues will become increasingly important (Key Note 2009, p. 49). Hoseasons, the self-catering leader, also take this view, claiming that more people are choosing to holiday in the UK because of a demand for a 'green' and alternative to flying abroad. Similarly, the ferry lines entered 2008 assuming that demand would increase for their services as a greener alternative (Key Note 2009, p. 49).
 
The UK has the most expensive rates for hotels in Europe, and average prices rose by 12% in 2007 to an average of just over £100 per night. London's exceptionally expensive rates influence this figure (Key Note 2009, p. 50). Against this background, and bearing in mind the recession, a move towards increasing the number of budget hotels seems inevitable. Previous expansion in the hotel industry has concentrated on the luxury end of the market with the growth of 'boutique' hotels and the interest in catering to the super-rich. While this seems unfortunate given the recession, it is not obviously a bad strategy as historically the luxury market has been shown to reflect the economy more slowly than the rest of the market. (Key Note 2009, p. 92) In October 2007, Marriott estimated the growth in revenue per available room at between 5% and 7% in 2008; however, by May 2008, this had been revised to between 3% and 5%. As clients reduce their spending, it is likely that over-supply will be seen in the market and this will lead to some brand rationalisation (Key Note 2009, p. 92).

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